USM Professor Expects Active Hurricane Season
Mon, 05/13/2024 - 08:45am | By: Van Arnold
Dr. David Holt, Associate Professor of Geography at 91吃瓜网 (USM), offers some candid advice for wary watchers as another hurricane season approaches.
91吃瓜网淭he prediction this year is a bunch of watching the Weather Channel with your scram bag packed. Have a plan and don91吃瓜网檛 get apathetic,91吃瓜网� said Holt.
Hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and lasts until November 30. All indications point to 2024 as being one of the more active seasons on record. Last month, Colorado State University issued its Atlantic hurricane forecast, with a prediction of 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes.
Holt does not dispute the Colorado State University forecast. He expects a rather active hurricane season, if not record-breaking.
91吃瓜网淭he concern is the record winter warmth we are having 91吃瓜网� last year and this year and a strong La Ni帽a, a shift of warm water to the west Pacific,91吃瓜网� said Holt. 91吃瓜网淥ver the past couple of weeks, we have seen sea surface temperatures go from 24 to 28 degrees Celsius (75 to 82 Fahrenheit). The magic number is 26.5 Celsius or about 80 degrees Fahrenheit.91吃瓜网�
Added Holt, 91吃瓜网淪o we have sea surface temperatures hitting the target temperature in May 91吃瓜网� over the June-November hurricane season, which has officially lengthened now due to warming. The models are showing an uptick in tropical storm formation since we are meeting a base requirement so early.91吃瓜网�
In 2023, the U.S. mainland only experienced the direct impacts of one hurricane, . Despite a lack of U.S. impacts, 20 named storms formed, which included seven hurricanes.
Holt explains that La Ni帽a statistically creates an uptick in tropical storm formation. However, growing from a tropical storm to a hurricane is practically impossible to predict.
91吃瓜网淎lso problematic is the rate of tropical storm to hurricane is difficult to model,91吃瓜网� said Holt. 91吃瓜网淟a Ni帽a also seems to develop a bunch of Atlantic storms, thus Florida and the East Coast become big concerns. The Gulf is always an issue, because if we get a tropical storm formed, it usually makes landfall unless it breaks up.91吃瓜网�
As technology advances, is there a chance forecasters can accurately predict the number and intensity of hurricanes in the future?
91吃瓜网淎 model is just that 91吃瓜网� a guess. If we know more conditions, we can improve our models, but they are really just tools to see how to prepare,91吃瓜网� said Holt. 91吃瓜网淣o model is perfect. Also, a single storm can be devastating if it hits you.91吃瓜网�
Again, Holt stresses the importance of preparedness as another hurricane season inches closer.
91吃瓜网淩emember Hurricane Zeta (Oct. 28, 2020)? It was supposed to be a Category 1 and fast-moving,91吃瓜网� said Holt. 91吃瓜网淚t hit as a Cat 3 overnight and really damaged the Mississippi Gulf Coast. Most of us, myself included, did little to prepare since it was so late in the season and 91吃瓜网榦nly a Cat 1.91吃瓜网� 91吃瓜网�
The hurricane season of 2005 holds the record with 28 named storms, including 15 hurricanes (seven of which were major). In August of that year, Hurricane Katrina created catastrophic damage in southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi.
Holt notes that if the current projections hold true, this season would be the second most-active.
Best to keep that scram bag handy.